As the world watches with bated breath, a 900-meter-wide rock hurtling across space toward Earth is generating much discussion. Come February 2023, asteroid Apophis is set to pass close by the Earth, leading to much speculation about the potential consequences of this proximity. Will the asteroid have a catastrophic impact on the planet? Will it come so close that it causes significant damage to our atmosphere? These are questions everybody is asking. The good news is, while the Apophis asteroid is still a cause for concern, recent developments from February 2023 provide a glimmer of hope. Astronomers and scientists around the world are now studying the asteroid’s orbit and predict that it won’t be as close to Earth as initially feared. This means that the risk of a catastrophic collision is, for the time being, diminishing. The discoveries made in February 2023 and the new insights into the path of the asteroid Apophis have given us a better understanding of how to prepare for the unpredictable. While it still remains a possible threat, there is a greater chance that we can escape unscathed from this encounter.
II. History of Apophis
Asteroid Apophis was first discovered by astronomers in 2004, and with its estimated diameter of 340 meters it is classified as a potentially hazardous asteroid (PHA). It passed about 19,000 miles from the Earth’s surface in 2029, a relatively close encounter for an asteroid of its size. Although the estimated odds of an impact are very slim, experts like NASA continue to watch its trajectory carefully.
Though it had been noticed by experts since its discovery, Apophis really gained attention in 2006 when an orbit calculation suggested that it had a 2.7% chance of hitting the Earth in 2029. This trajectory was revisited several times, and the risk of a collision was eventually ruled out. Apophis is now projected to pass even closer to the Earth on April 13, 2036, though again its odds of impacting our planet are very remote.
Frequent observations of Apophis have allowed experts to predict its future path with extraordinary accuracy. Currently, they estimate that the asteroid will pass at least 19,751 miles from Earth in 2023. This makes it an excellent target for spacecraft missions and other research opportunities.
In 2021, NASA and the European Space Agency (ESA) launched their joint mission ‘AIM’ to explore Apophis and other asteroids in the solar system. The AIM probe will perform close-up studies of Apophis when it passes within 19,400 miles of the Earth in 2029 and later come back for another visit to Apophis in 2036. Ultimately, the AIM mission aims to better understand the risk of asteroid impacts and help inform decision-making related to such events.
Given the data-gathering potential associated with Apophis, it is certain to remain a topic of significant interest for experts in the next few years. As we wait to see if Apophis will impact us, the additional observations provided by the AIM mission provides an unprecedented opportunity to gain invaluable insight into this fascinating celestial body.
III. Overview of Recent Developments
The near-Earth asteroid Apophis has been the subject of global discussion in recent years due to its potential to impact Earth in April 2068. As part of the scientific community’s effort to monitor the asteroid’s path, further research and observation have been conducted to assess the risk of impact. Over the past several months, new developments have emerged in understanding the risk posed by Apophis.
In February 2023, the European Space Agency announced the completion of a 3D orbital model of Apophis based on observations from the Large Millimeter Telescope in Mexico and the Seychelles Islands Observatory. This model is more accurate than any previously available, and provides a better understanding of how Apophis might interact with Earth in 2068.
Scientists have also begun testing a new strategy for diverting an asteroid. The strategy utilizes the gravity of a spacecraft in close proximity to Apophis to tug on the asteroid and alter its orbit. A computer simulation conducted by the International Asteroid Warning Network showed that, given the right conditions, the technique could be successful.
Further observations of Apophis suggest a possibility of impact in 2036 amidst a very slim window of opportunity. For now, Apophis is being monitored closely and any new developments will be shared with the wider scientific community.
At the time of writing, the risk of Apophis impacting Earth in either 2036 or 2068 still remains low. However, the ongoing research and new developments around Apophis present important insights into the risks posed by near-Earth asteroids.
IV. Potential Impact Risk
Given its size and speed, Apophis has the potential to cause devastating damage if it were to impact Earth in April 2068. The asteroid would be traveling at an incredible speed of 14 km/s when it passes through Earth’s orbit, releasing an energy equivalent to 880 megatons of TNT. This is close to 15 times the energy released by the Hiroshima atomic bomb. If a collision were to occur, the effects would be severe and widespread, from an immense shockwave that could shatter buildings to regional tsunamis, strong winds, and massive plumes of dust.
The impact would depend largely on where it strikes the Earth. If the asteroid were to hit land, the immediate region would experience extreme destruction due to the combination of the high-speed object, explosive shockwave, and local ground forces. On the other hand, if Apophis were to collide with the ocean, the result would be less severe as the majority of the kinetic energy and heat would be absorbed by the water.
In order to better prepare for the potential risks, scientists have been working hard to refine their predictions and understand exactly how the asteroid may affect Earth if it were to make contact. Unfortunately, the trajectory of Apophis is difficult to predict and uncertainty still remains as to whether or not the asteroid will even strike Earth in April 2068.